Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Why Conan Will Fail

Let me preface this post by saying, I love Conan. I don't watch a lot of late night TV but when I did it was always Conan. He was the most entertaining of all the talk show hosts. That being said, everyone is sooo excited he is coming back to TV, he's going to take down Leno and be HUGE! Except . . . He won't. As much as I love Conan, he is going to fail and here is why:

We need an instant reward these days. We get up to the second info on Twitter, we know what's happening to everyone on Facebook 24/7 and news in the newspaper is outdated because it was already reported online 6 hours ago. Conan needed a show to come out the week after he left NBC. I know that was impossible with his contract but that is the only way he could have made a big splash.

Why do so many American Idol contestant CDs fail? Because they come out 6 months after the show ended. If they had these CDs set for release the week after each contestant got eliminated (as implausible as it would be) they would be way more successful. You ever see those adds two months after a team wins the Super Bowl for Sports Illustrated, where they offer the official team DVD with your subscription? Well, again impossible, but you'd sell way more subscriptions if you could get that out within a week.

Conan will have the same problem. He has sustained good buzz for a while, but we are talking November before he is on TV again. Seven months in in these days is like seven years. Sure, people will tune in for the first episode (just like many people do for the first episode of any show) but to assume that he will be nearly as big as Letterman or Leno is crazy. Conan will need some way to stay in the news (the comedy tour is an ok start but he'll need much more excitement on a larger scale than that) to have shot at doing really well on a basic cable channel.

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